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Which Party will Control the U.S. Senate?

By presidential-politics.com
Updated on November 5, 2012

One hundred senators make up the United States Senate, two from each state. 
Elections will be held on November 6, 2012 in 33 states to elect one senator from each state.
These seats are currently held by 21 Democrats, 2 Independents who caucus with Democrats and 10 Republicans.
The 67 seats that are not up for election this November are held by 30 Democrats and 37 Republicans.

Accordingly, Democrats and the Independents who caucus with them need to win a combined minimum of 21 seats if they are to remain as the majority party in the senate.
Likewise, Republicans need to win at least 14 seats to gain control of the senate.

In the event that the Democrats and  the Independents win 20 seats, mathematically, the Republicans can win only 13 seats. This would lead to a tie and the party that wins the White House will control the senate. The Vice-President  is the President of the senate and has the tie breaker vote.

COMPETITIVE  U.S. SENATE SEATS

Seven of the 33 seats up for reelection are in California, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island and Washington. These are solid Democratic seats.
Independent U.S. Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders is one of the 33 senators up for reelection. He caucuses with the Democrats and  is sure to win.
Five other seats out of the 33 are also sure bets. They are the solid Republican seats in Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.
That leaves us with 20 very competitive contests in the so called "Battle Ground States".

DEMOCRATS NEED TO WIN A MINIMUM OF 13 OUT OF THESE 20 SEATS TO CONTINUE AS THE MAJORITY PARTY  IN THE SENATE.
REPUBLICANS COULD GAIN CONTROL OF THE SENATE BY WINNING  8  OUT OF THESE 20 SEATS.


ARIZONA

Flake [R]         51%
Carmona [D]   46%
PPP (D)
November 4, 2012

Flake [R]         50%
Carmona [D]   44%
Rasmussen Reports
October 25, 2012

Flake [R]        40%
Carmona [D]  44%
Behavior Research Center
October 13, 2012

Flake [R]           43%
Carmona [D]     45%
PPP (D)
October 3, 2012

CONNECTICUT 

Murphy [D]      52%
McMahon [R]   43%
PPP (D)
October 29, 2012

Murphy [D]      51%
McMahon [R]   45%
Rasmussen
October 29, 2012

Murphy [D]      49%
McMahon [R]   43%
Quinnipiac University
October 24, 2012

Murphy [D]       48%
McMahon [R]    47%
Rasmussen
October 23, 2012

Murphy [D]       47%
McMahon [R]    43%
Survey USA
October 23, 2012

Murphy [D]       44%
McMahon [R]    38%
Hartford Courant/UConn
October 18, 2012

Murphy [D]       46%
McMahon [R]    44%
Siena
October 17, 2012

FLORIDA 

Nelson [D]      52%
Mack [R]        44%
NBC/WSJ/Marist
November 3, 2012

Nelson [D]      49%
Mack [R]        43%
TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon
November 4, 2012

Nelson [D]      52%
Mack [R]        39%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
October 31, 2012

Nelson [D]      49%
Mack [R]        46%
Gravis Marketing
October 31, 2012

Nelson [D]      49%
Mack [R]        41%
Survey USA  
October 30, 2012

Nelson [D]      49%
Mack [R]        46%
Rasmussen Reports
October 29, 2012

Nelson [D]      49%
Mack [R]        44%
Sunshine State News
October 29, 2012

Nelson [D]      45%
Mack [R]        41%
PPP (D)        
October 23, 2012

HAWAII 

Hirono [D]     57%
Lingle [R]      35%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser
October 29, 2012

Mazie Hirono [D]    55%
Linda Lingle [R]      39%
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG
October 1, 2012

INDIANA

Mourdock (R) 47%
Donnelly (D)   42%
Rasmussen Reports
October 15, 2012

MAINE

King [I]          50%
Summers [R]  24%
Dill [D]          12%
Pan Atlantic SMS
October 10, 2012

King [I]          50%
Summers [R]  28%
Dill [D]          12%
Critical Insights
September 30, 2012

MASSACHUSETTS 

Brown [R]       46%
Warren [D]      52%
PPP (D)
November 2, 2012

Brown [R]       46%
Warren [D]      53%
Suffolk/7 News
October 30, 2012

Brown [R]      47%
Warren [D]     47%
Boston Globe
October 29, 2012

Brown [R]      47%
Warren [D]     52%
Rasmussen Reports
October 26, 2012

Brown [R]       44%
Warren [D]      50%
WBUR/MassINC
October 24, 2012

Brown [R]         47%
Warren [D]       49%
Rasmussen Reports
October 11, 2012

Brown [R]        44%
Warren [D]       50%
PPP (D)
October 11, 2012

Brown [R]       48%
Warren [D]      45%
WBUR/Mass INC.
October 9, 2012





MICHIGAN

Stabnow [D]    50%
Hoekstra [R]    44%
Baydoun/Foster
November 4, 2012

Stabnow [D]    55%
Hoekstra [R]    42%
PPP (D)
November 3, 2012

Stabnow [D]    52%
Hoekstra [R]    38%
Detroit News
October 31, 2012

Stabnow [D]    50%
Hoekstra [R]    38%
Detroit News
October 11, 2012

Stabnow [D]     55%
Hoekstra [R]     35%
EPIC-MRA
October 8, 2012

MISSOURI

McCaskill [D]    48%
Akin [R]            44%
PPP [D]
November 4, 2012

McCaskill [D]    49%
Akin [R]            45%
We Ask America
October 31, 2012

McCaskill [D]    45%
Akin [R]            43%
Post-Dispatch / Mason Dixon
October 27, 2012

McCaskill [D]   51%
Adkin [R]         43%
Rasmussen Reports
October 19, 2012

McCaskill [D]    46%
Adkin [R]          40%
PPP (D)
October 3, 2012

McCaskill [D]   46%
Adkin [R]         45%
WeAskAmerica
Octobert 2, 2012

MONTANA

Tester [D]     49%
Rehberg [R]  48%
Rasmussen Reports
November 2, 2012

Tester [D]     48%
Rehberg [R]  48%
Rasmussen Reports
October 16, 2012

Tester [D]     45%
Rehberg [R]  43%
PPP (D)
October 10, 2012

NEBRASKA

Fisher [R]     54%
Kerry [D]     41%
WeAskAmerica
November 2, 2012

NEVADA

Heller [R]      46%
Berkley [D]   40%
LVRJ/Survey USA
October 31, 2012

Heller [R]       50%
Berkley [D]    45%
Rasmussen Reports
October 25, 2012

Heller [R]      44%
Berkley [D]   44%
PPP [D]
October 24, 2012

NEW JERSEY

Mendez [D]    53%
Kyrillos [R]     33%
Survey USA
October 20, 2012

Mendez [D]    52%
Kyrillos [R]    30%
Richard Stockton Col.
October 20, 2012

Mendez [D]        55%
Kyrillos [R]        37%
Quinnipiac University
October 16, 2012

NEW MEXICO

Heinrich [D]     48%
Wilson [R]       39%
Albuquerque Journal
Octpber 15. 2012

Heinrich [D]     52%
Wilson [R]       39%
Rasmussen Reports
October 11, 2012

NORTH DAKOTA

Heitkamp [D]     45%
Berg [R]            47%
Mason-Dixon
October 30, 2012

Heitkamp [D]     45%
Berg [R]            50%
Rasmussen
October 23, 2012

Heitkamp [D]     40%
Berg [R]            50%
Forum-Essman
October 20, 2012

Heitkamp [D]      47%
Berg [R]             47%
Mason-Dixon
October 9, 2012


OHIO

Brown [D]     51%
Mandel [R]    45%
Columbus Dispatch
November 4, 2012

Brown [D]     48%
Mandel [R]    48%
Rasmussen Reports
November 3, 2012

Brown [D]     50%
Mandel [R]    45%
NBC/WSJ/Marist
November 3, 2012

Brown [D]     50%
Mandel [R]    48%
Rasmussen Reports
October 31, 2012

Brown [D]     49%
Mandel [R]    44%
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cinn.
October 31, 2012

Brown [D]     51%
Mandel [R]    42%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
October 31, 2012

Brown [D]     46%
Mandel [R]    41%
Survey USA
October 30, 2012

Brown [D]     51%
Mandel [R]    47%
Cincinnati Enquirer / Ohio News
October 29, 2012

Brown [D]     48%
Mandel [R]    47%
Gravis Marketing
October 28, 2012

Brown [D]     53%
Mandel [R]    42%
PPP [D]
October 28, 2012

Brown [D]    48%
Mandel [R]   44%
Rasmussen Reports
October 24, 2012

Brown [D]    43%
Mandel [R]   42%
Survey USA
October 24, 2012

Brown [D]    51%
Mandel [R]   42%
CBS News/Quinnipiac
October 22, 2012

Brown [D]     46%
Mandel [R]    39%
Suffolk
October 22, 2012

PENNSYLVANIA

Casey [D]      48%
Smith [R]      42%
Morning Call
November 4, 2012

Casey [D]      52%
Smith [R]      44%
PPP (D)
November 3, 2012

Casey [D]      46%
Smith [R]       45%
Tribune Review/Susquehanna
November 3, 2012

Casey [D]      48%
Smith [R]      39%
Franklin & Marshall
October 31, 2012

Casey [D]      49%
Smith [R]      42%
Philadelphia Inquirer
October 27, 2012

Casey [D]      46%
Smith [R]       45%
Rasmussen Reports
October 26, 2012

Casey [D]      45%
Smith [R]       37%
Morning Call
October 22, 2012

Casey [D]      48%
Smith [R]       45%
Quinnipiac University
October 16, 2012

Casey [D]      50%
Smith [R]      39%
PPP (D)
October 15, 2012

VIRGINIA

Kaine [D]    50%
Allen [R]     50%
WeAskAmerica
November 2, 2012

Kaine [D]    42%
Allen [R]     47%
Roanoke College
October 31, 2012

Kaine [D]    50%
Allen [R]     46%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
October 31, 2012

Kaine [D]    46%
Allen [R]     48%
Gravis Marketing
October 27, 2012

Kaine [D]    51%
Allen [R]     44%
Washington Post
October 28, 2012

Kaine [D]    49%
Allen [R]     48%
Rasmussen Reports
October 26, 2012

Kaine [D]    49%
Allen [R]     48%
Rasmussen Reports
October 21, 2012

WEST VIRGINIA

Manchin [D]     74%
Raese     [R]     23%
April 25-28, 2012

WISCONSIN

Baldwin [D]       51%
Thompson [R]   48%
PPP (D)
November 3, 2012

Baldwin [D]       48%
Thompson [R]   48%
Rasmussen Reports
November 2, 2012

Baldwin [D]       49%
Thompson [R]   46%
WeAskAmerica
November 2, 2012

Baldwin [D]       48%
Thompson [R]   47%
NBC/WSJ/Marist
November 1, 2012

Baldwin [D]       43%
Thompson [R]   46%
WPR/St. Norbert
November 1, 2012

Baldwin [D]       47%
Thompson [R]   43%
Marquette University
October 31, 2012

Baldwin [D]      47%
Thompson [R]  48%
Rasmussen Reports
October 28, 2012