PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS & STATE POLITICS
New
York is a Blue state, a safe Democratic state.
Presidential
election 2012
The
State of New York is allotted 29 electoral votes which is the third
largest number of electoral votes allotted to a state in the Union. New
York is also a winner-takes-all state and the winning candidate will
receive all 29 electoral votes. The number of electoral votes needed to
win the Presidency is 270.
In Presidential election 2008 Senator Obama won in
the
State of New York. He received 62.88% of the vote to Senator McCain's
36.03%.
[References:U.S. Electoral College, 2012: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2011] U.S. Senate Election in New York, 2012
Candidates
Kirsten Gillibrand [Democrat, Working Families, Independence] (Incumbent U.S. Senator)
Wendy Long [Republican, Conservative]
Colia Clark [Green]
Scott Noren [I]
Tim Sweet [I-Republican]
When U.S. Senator Hillary Rodham
Clinton
resigned to serve as U.S. Secretary of State in the Obama
administration, Governor David Paterson appointed then-U.S.
Representative Kirsten Gillibrand to serve as U.S. Senator from New
York until the 2010 special election.
Gillibrand won the special
election in 2010 with 62.9% of the vote and is the incumbent Democratic
U.S. Senator. She is running for re-election for a first full term.
U.S. House of Representatives Elections in New York, 2012
New
York State, after redistricting, will have 27 congressional
districts in the 113th Congress
(New York lost 2 districts because it's population grew slower than in
other parts of the country)
The primary elections were held on June 26, 2012.
Following
are the new congressional districts, the candidates who will run in November
2012
general election and our predictions.
(NEW) DISTRICT 1
Candidates
Timothy Bishop (U.S. Rep.) [D] [Working Families]
Randy Altschuler [R] [Conservative, Independence]
Rep.
Bishop is a 5 term Democratic incumbent. Altschuler ran in 2010 as the
Republican
candidate and lost to Bishop by fewer than 600 votes. There
is no
significant change in the district due to redistricting. The mid-term
election in 2010 was a bad year for Democrats nationwide. 2012 is a
Presidential election year.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS DISTRICT
[References: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 2
Candidates
Peter King (U.S. Rep) [R] [Conservative, Independence]
Vivianne Falcone [D] [Working Families]
Rep.
King is a nine-term Republican incumbent. In the current congress, he
represents District 3. There are considerable changes between current
district 3 and new district 2. Nevertheless, Mr. King is expected to
win the new district 2 easily.
WE EXPECT REPUBLICAN PARTY TO
HOLD THIS DISTRICT
[References: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 3
Candidates
Steve Israel (U.S. Rep.) [D] [Working Families, Independence]
Stephen Labate [Republican, Conservative]
Rep
Israel is a six-term Democratic incumbent. In the current congress, he
represents District 2 which is significantly different from new
District 3. Nevertheless, Mr. Israel is expected to win new
district 3. Mr. Israel is also the chairman of the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS DISTRICT
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW)
DISTRICT 4
Candidates
Carolyn McCarthy (U.S. Rep.) [D] [Working Families, Independence]
Francis Becker [R] [Conservative]
Rep. McCarthy has represented District 4 since 1997.
District
4 has not changed significantly due to redistricting. Miss McCarthy is
expected to be re-elected to new District 4 easily.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS
DISTRICT
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 5
Candidates
Gregory Meeks [D] (U.S. Rep)
Alan Jennings [R]
District
5 has ben represented by Democratic Rep. Gary Ackerman since
1983. He announced in March 2012 that he will be retiring at the end of
the current term.
Mr.
Meeks who has represented current District 6 for 8 terms is seeking his 9th
term in new District 5. and is expected to carry it easily.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS DISTRICT
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 6
Candidates
Grace Meng [D]
Dan Halloran [R] [Conservative]
Rory Lancman [Working Families]
Evergreen Chou [Green]
This is an open seat.
It is made up mostly of territory from current districts 5 and 9.
Incumbent Democrat Gary Ackerman of current
district 5 is retiring.
Incumbent Republican Bob Turner of current
district 9 did not run for U.S. House. Instead he ran and lost the Republican Party nomination to run for New
York U.S. Senate seat.
Miss Meng and Mr. Lancman are members of the State
Assembly.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS
DISTRICT
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 7
Candidates
Nydia Velazquez (U.S. Rep.) [D] [Working Families]
James Murray [Conservative]
No GOP candidate is running in this district.
Miss Velazquez, a 10 term incumbent currently represents District 12.
She is expected to carry New District 7 easily.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS
DISTRICT
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 8
Candidates
Hakeem Jeffries [D] [Working Families]
Alan Bellone [R] [Conservative]
Collin Beavan [Green]
This is an open seat.
Democratic incumbent Edolphus Towns who was redistricted from current district 10 is not running for reelection.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS
DISTRICT
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 9
Candidates
Yvette Clark [D] [Working Families]
Daniel Cavanagh [R] [Conservative]
Vivia Morgan [Green]
Rep.
Robert Turner is the Republican Representative of former
District 9 which was basically eliminated due to redistricting. This
was the district of former Rep. Democrat Anthony Weiner who resigned
amid a sexting candle. Mr. Turner won in the special election in
September 2011 to complete the rest of Mr. Weiner's term.
Mr.
Turner did not seek re-election to the U.S.
House. Instead he ran and lost in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat to challenge incumbent
Democratic U.S
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2012 election.
Rep. Yvette Clark who represents current District 11 is
a three term incumbent. He is expected to carry District 9.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO WIN THIS DISTRICT. IT WILL BE A
DEMOCRATIC PARTY GAIN.
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 10
Candidates
Jerrold Nadler (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families]
Michael Chan [R] [Conservative]
Mr.
Nadler is the representative of current District 8. He is a 11 term
Democratic incumbent and is expected to carry new District 10 easily.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS
DISTRICT
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 11
Candidates
Michael Grimm (U.S. Rep) [R] [Conservative]
Mark Murphy [D] [Working Families]
Henry Bardel [Green]
Rep. Grimm represent current District 13. He
is a freshman congressman.
Current District 13 did not change significantly
when it became new District 11.
Mr.
Grimm won in 2010 defeating incumbent Democratic Rep. Michael McMahon
by 4251 votes which is a great victory when you consider
that, Mr.
McMahon won just two years prior in 2008 by defeating the Republican
candidate Straniere by more than 50,000 votes.
However, when you
examine the number of votes received by Mr. Grim in 2010 a different
scenario emerges. Even with the full backing of the Conservative Party,
and all the anti-incumbent fever, Mr. Grimm was able to get only 65,024
votes. The Republican candidate in 2008, Mr. Straniere even without the
backing of the Conservative Party, received 62,441 votes when he lost
by more than 50,000. Even after making an allowance for 2010
being a
midterm election year, it is difficult to ignore that the Republicans
in new District 11 have not come out in large numbers to vote for
their candidates.
The Democratic voters in new District 11
have shown up big time in 2008 when Mr. Mc.Mahon received 114,219
votes. In 2010, they have stayed at home in huge numbers.
2012 is a
Presidential election year. If Mark Murphy can get some of those
democrats to the polling booth, he can be a winner.
WE WOULD DESCRIBE THIS DISTRICT AS A TOSS-UP
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 12
Candidates
Carolyn Maloney (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families]
Christopher Wight [R] [Conservative, Independence]
Miss
Maloney represents the current 14th District and is a 10 term
incumbent. She is expected to easily win new District 12 in November
2012.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS DISTRICT.
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 13
Candidates
Charles Rangel (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families]
Craig Schley [R]
Mr. Rangel represents the current District 15. He is a 21 term
incumbent and has held the Chairmanship of the powerful Ways and Means
Committee. However, he was censured by the House for ethics violations.
He survived a serious challange in the June 26, 2012 primary for the
Democratic Party nomination.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS DISTRICT.
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW)
DISTRICT 14
Candidates
Joe Crowley (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families]
William Gibbons [R] [Conservative]
Anthony Gronowicz [Green]
Mr. Crowley represents the current District 7. He is a 7
term incumbent and is expected to win new District 14 in November 2012.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS DISTRICT.
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 15
Candidates
Jose Serrano (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families]
Frank Della Valle [R] [Conservative]
Mr.
Serrano is the Representative of current District 16. He is a 12 term
incumbent and received 96% of the vote in 2010 election.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS DISTRICT.
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 16
Candidates
Eliot Engel (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families]
Joseph McLaughing [R] [Conservative]
Joseph Diaferia [Green]
Mr.
Engel represents current District 17. He is a 12 term
incumbent.
New District 16 is significantly different from current District 17.
Nevertheless, Mr. Emgel is expected to win New District 16 in November
2012.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS DISTRICT.
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 17
Candidates
Nita Lowley (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families] [Independence]
Joe Carvin [R] [Conservative]
Miss Lowley represents current District 18.
New District 17 is significantly different from current District
18.
Current 18th District covers most of southern and central Westchester
and a small section of Rockland County around New City.
All
of Rockland County and the northwest section of Westchester county
which
are not parts of current District 18 have been included in
the
new District 17.
Much of southern and central Westchester that are parts of current
District 18 have been excluded from new District 17.
Republican party believes that they have an opportunity to win new
congressional District 17 in November 2012. Their candidate Mr. Carvin is the Town Supervisor of Rye.
However,
much of Rockland County and Westchester County that are
included
in new District 17 are parts of current District 17 that is represented
by Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel. Mr. Engel won in 2010
mid-term
election by receiving 72.9 % of the vote.
Miss Lowley is a 12 term incumbent and won current District 18 in 2010
mid-term election receiving 62.2 % of the vote.
We believe that Rep. Nita lowley will win a 13th term
in November 2012.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS DISTRICT.
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 18
Candidates
Nan Hayworth (U.S. Rep) [R] [Conservative] [Independence]
Sean Patrick Maloney [D]
Larry Weissmann [Working Families]
Rep. Hayworth represents current District 19 which
covers:
All of Putnam County
Northern Westchester County
Southern Duchess County
Most of Orange County, and
Part of Rockland County
The re-drawn new District 18 is different from current
District 19 in the several ways:
It looses northwest corner of Westchester and southeast corner of
Duchess County.
It will include City of Poughkeepsie and remainder of Orange
County.
These changes while not major are not helpful to a
Republican Party candidate.
In
2010 midterm election, Ms. Hayworth beat incumbent Democrat
John
Hall 52.5% to 47.5%, (109,956 to 98,766) a decent majority of 11,190
votes.
But, if you examine the total votes received by the
candidates in 2008 and 2010, there is good reason for optimism for a
Democratic Party candidate.
In the Presidential election year
2008, Democrat John Hall received 164,859 votes and beat Republican
Kiran Labor who received 116,120.
2012 is a Presidential election
year and Democratic votes are there for a good
candidate to muster. We believe that Mr. Maloney is a good
candidate. It is however, a considerable disadvantage that the Working
Families Party is having their own candidate instead of backing Mr.
Maloney
WE WOULD DESCRIBE THE CONTEST FOR NEW
DISTRICT 18 AS A TOSS-UP.
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free
encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 19
Candidates
Chris Gibson (U.S. Rep) [R] [Conservative] [Independence]
Julian Schreibman [D] [Working Families]
Rep. Gibson represents Current District 20.
New
District 19 include counties Ulster, Sullivan, Delaware and part
of Broome. Together, they form more than half of New District 19 and they
are not parts of current District 20.
Instead, they are parts of Current District 22 that Democratic Rep.
Maurice Hinchey represents. Mr. Hinchey is retiring at the
end of
this year after serving since January 2003. District 22 is eliminated
in the new map.
In
the Presidential election year 2008, Current District 20 was won by
former Democratic Rep. Kirstan Gillibrand with a majority of over
68,000 votes. Ms. Gillibrand was appointed as the Junior U.S. Senator
of New York upon the resignation of Senator Hillary Clinton to take up
the position of Secretary of State in the Obama administration.
In the special election in 2009, Democrat Scott Murphy won, but barely
by 726 votes.
In the mid-term election 2010 Gibson won by beating Murphy by
over 23,000 votes.
Nevertheless,
the major changes in the New District 19 mentioned above along with the
fact that 2012 is a Presidential election year will make this district
very competitive.
Mr. Schrebman who is the
former chairman of
Ulster County Democratic committee is a formidable candidate.
WE WOULD DESCRIBE THE CONTEST FOR NEW DISTRICT 19 AS A TOSS-UP.
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 20
Candidates
Paul Tonko (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families] [Independence]
Bob Dieterich [R] [Conservative]
Rep. Paul Tonko represents Current District 21.
There are only minor changes between Current District 21
and New District 20.
In
2010 mid-term election Mr. Tonko won against Republican nominee Danz by
59.3% to 40.7%. Mr. Tonko is favored to win in New District
20.
WE EXPECT DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD NEW
DISTRICT 20.
[Reference: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 21
Candidates
Bill Owens (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families]
Matthew Doheny [R] [Conservative]
Donald Hassig [Green]
Rep Owens represent Current District 23.
Current
District 23 is the northernmost congressional district for the U.S.
House of Representatives. It is a very large district that borders
Canada to the north and Vermont to the east.
New
District 21 is even larger than Current District 23. It is a huge
district that covers one-fifth of the land mass of New York. It covers
16,000 square miles compared with 14,000 square miles of Current
District 23.
In
Presidential election year 2008, Republican John McHugh won Current
District 23 defeating Democrat Michael Oot 65.3% to 34.7%.
In
September 2009 Mr. McHugh resigned as the representative of Current
District 23 to take up appointment as United States Secretary of the
Army.
A
special election for this seat was held in November 2009,
and some strange things happened during the campaign. It
started
as a three way race: Democrat Bill Owens, Conservative Doug Hoffman and
Republican Dede Scozzafava all campaigned hard. But just prior to the
election Republican Scozzafava dropped out of the race and endorsed
Democrat Bill Owens!
Bill Owens won receiving 48.3% of the vote to 46.0% received by Doug
Hoffman.The majority was a mere 3,584 votes.
The 2010 mid-term election was a tough one for all
Democrats. But
again, Bill Owens who by then was the freshman Representative was in a three
way race with Republican Matthew Doheny and Conservative candidate Doug
Hoffman.
Rep. Owens won with 47.5% of the vote to Republican Doheny's 46.4% and
Conservative Hoffman's 6.1%. The majority was 1,995.
Looking
forward to November 2012, it does not look great for Mr. Owens.
Republicans and Conservatives both back Mr. Doheny. Green Party
candidate Donald Hassig's presence can only hurt Mr. Owens.
He does have the benefit of having represented the constituents of
Current District 23 since 2009.
Rep.
Owens will also be encouraged by the fact that in 2010 Mr. Doheny
outspent him almost 2-to-1 and still could not beat him. And news
has broken out that, Mr. Doheny has been behaving inappropriately with a
fund-raising consultant while being engaged to another woman.
Evaluating
all of the above, it is difficult to make a definite
prediction for New District 21.
WE WOULD DESCRIBE THE CONTEST FOR NEW DISTRICT 21
AS A TOSS-UP.
[Reference:
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012: Maury Thompson, Post Star,
4-11-2012: Brian Amaral: Daily Courier- Observer02-01-2012]
(NEW)
DISTRICT 22
Candidates
Richard Hanna (U.S. Rep) [R] [Conservative] [Independence]
Dan Lamb [D] [Working Families]
Rep. Richard Hanna represents Current District 24.
Current District 24 includes:
All of the counties of Chenango, Cortland, Herkimer and Seneca.
Parts of the counties of Broome, Cayuga, Oneida, Ontario, Otsego, Tioga
and Tompkins.
When Current District 24 became New District 22 in the
new map, two changes occurred.
It lost parts of the counties of Senea, Cayuga and Tomkins.
Most of Broome County, another part of Tioga county and a
part of Oswego county were added on.
These
changes will not help Rep. Hanna, particularly the additions coming
from Current District 22 now represented by Rep. Maurice Hinchey who is
a very popular Democrat and who is retiring.
In
mid-term election 2010, Rep. Hanna won over incumbent Democratic Rep.
Michael Arcuri with a majority of 10,649 votes. The total turnout was
182,723.
In Presidential election year 2008, it was the opposite
of what occurred in 2010. Rep. Arcuri won over Mr. Hanna with a
majority of 9919 votes. The total turnout was 282,114.
Democratic Party challenger Dan Lamb is well known in
the
New District 22. He is a senior aid to Democratic Congressman Maurice
Hinchey and runs Mr. Hinchey's Binghamton office. the New District
22 contains a significant portion of Mr. Hinchey's former district
where Mr. Lamb has worked for 14 years.
The above information indicates a close contest
for New District 22.
WE WOULD DESCRIBE THE CONTEST FOR NEW DISTRICT 22 AS A
TOSS-UP.
[References: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: Celeste Katz, N.Y. Daily
News, 02-15-2012]
NEW DISTRICT 23
Candidates
Tom Reed (U.S. Rep) [R] [Conservative] [Independence]
Nathan Schinagowa [D] [Working Families]
Rep. Tom Reed represents Current District 29.
Current District 29 has changed hands between
Republicans and Democrats since 2006.
In mid-term election 2006, incumbent GOP Rep Kuhl defeated Democratic
challenger Eric Massa 52% to 48%.
In Presidential election year 2008, Democratic challenger Eric Massa defeated incumbent GOP Rep. Kuhl 50.9% to 49.10%.
In
March 2010, Democratic Rep. Massa resigned amid allegations of sexual
misconduct. The Governor called for special election to be held
simultaneously with the general election on the same day in November
2010..
In
the special election and the mid-term election held
on
the same day in November 2010, GOP candidate Tom Reed
defeated
Democratic candidate Matthew Zeller 56% to 44% of the vote.
The redistricting has changed the
scenario considerably. With New York loosing two of it's congressional
districts, Current District 29 has become obsolete.
Current District 29 consists of :
All of Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chemung, Schuyler, Steuben, Yates.
Parts of Monroe and Ontario.
With
redistricting, when Current District 29 became New District 23,
it lost it's northern section in Monroe County and all of Ontario
County.
It's western boundary is Lake Erie in Chautauqua County.
It's eastern end covers most of Tioga County and all of Tompkins
County.
The
above changes are said to favor a Democratic candidate.
Nate
Schinagowa is a Tompkins County
Legislator.
WE WOULD DESCRIBE THE ELECTION IN NEW DISTRICT 23 AS A TOSS-UP.
[References: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: Press
connects.com., A Gannet Company, 03-22-2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 24
Anne Marie Buerkle (U.S. Rep) [R] [Conservative] [Independence]
Dan Maffei [D] [Working Families]
Ursula Rozum [Green Party]
Rep Buerkle represents Current District 25.
Current District 25 comprises:
All of Onondage and Wayne Counties,
Northernmost portion of Cayuga County and
Part of Monroe County.
When Current District 25 became New District 24
following changes occurred:
It lost the eastern section of the Monroe County,
It picked up the western part of Oswego County,
It included all of Onondaga and Cayuga Counties,
It continues to include all of Wayne County.
Both
Republican and Democratic candidates support the court drawn
new
map and the changes are not expected to affect either party
significantly.
Rep.
Burkle won 2010 mid-term election defeating incumbent Democratic
Rep. Maffei 50.2% to 49.8%. The majority was a mere 567 votes. The
total turnout was 208,181.
In Presidential election year 2008,
former Rep. Maffei who is running again in 2012 defeat Republican Party
candidate Dale Sweetland 54.5% to 42.2%, with the Green Party candidate
Hawkins receiving 3.3% of the vote. The majority was 33,053 with a
total turnout of 268,624.
In the mid-term election year 2006, Mr.
Maffei lost to incumbent Republican Rep. James Walsh 50.8% to
49.2%.
Mr. Walsh's majority was 3,417 with a total turnout of 217,633.
There
is a new Green Party candidate, Ursula Rozum in 2012 election. She
volunteered in "get out the vote" effort in 2008 for senator Obama and
Mr. Maffei.
Clearly Ms. Rozun will take more votes away from Mr. Maffei than from
Rep. Buerkle.
Rep.
Buerkle has picked up the endorsement of the Independence Party of
New York. She is also running on Conservative Party
line which she did in 2010.
However, the news is that Rep. Buerkle is not very popular with the
Republican establishment.
Mr. Maffei has the full backing of the Democratic Congressional
Committee.
All of the above information points to a close fight.
[WE WOULD DESCRIBE THE ELECTION IN NEW DISTRICT 24 AS A TOSS-UP]
[References:
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012: Pressconnecnnects.com,A Gannet
Company, 03-22-2012: Alexis Levinson, The Daily Caller,03-0802012: Mark
Weiner, The Post-Standard, 04-16-2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 25
Louise Slaughter (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families]
Maggie Brooks [R] [Conservative] [Independensce]
Rep. Slaughter represents Current District 28.
Current Districts 28 will become obsolete in the 113th
Congress.
Current District 28 include Parts of Erie, Monroe, Niagara and Orleans Counties.
New District 25 is entirely contained within Monroe
County.
The Monroe County towns of Hamlin, Wheatland, Rush and Mendon are not parts of the new district.
When Current District 28 became New District 25 the
changes were obvious and very significant.
These changes are not to the advantage of Rep. Slaughter.
On the contrary, her challenger Ms. Maggie Brooks is the County
Executive of Monroe County. Indeed, she has been Monroe County
Executive since January 2004.
Further, the 29-member Monroe County Legislature has 18 Republicans and
only 11 Democrats.
However,
Statistics of recent elections in Monroe County seem to favor Rep.
Slaughter. Following are a few:
2012
is a Presidential election year and so was 2008 when then Senator Obama
carried Monroe County by 58.0% of the vote to Senator McCain's 41.0%.
President Obama received 196,564 votes to Senator McCain's 139,001. A
majority of 57,563.
In
2010 mid-term election, Democrats took a beating in most parts of the
nation. In New York state, four incumbent Democratic U.S.
Representatives lost to Republicans.
But, in the County of Monroe, Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo
won
big over Republican nominee Carl Paladino. His Majority was over 60,000
votes.
Likewise, U.S. Senator Charles Schumer won in Monroe County over the
Republican challenger by a majority over 60,000 votes.
Similarly
in Monroe County, U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand contesting
for
the 2 year un-expired term won over the Republican candidate by almost
38,000 votes.
Rep. Slaughter herself did pretty well in
2010 in the section of Monroe County that is included in Current
District 28. She received 45,900 votes as against the 19,619 votes
received by Republican challenger Jill Rowland, a majority of 26,281.
Rep.
Slaughter's challenger Ms. Brooks had been elected as the County
Executive of Monroe County in her first election in November 2003
receiving 65% of the vote. In 2007 she had been re-elected to a second
term receiving 74% of the vote. However, in her most recent election in
2011 she has won receiving 57% of the vote against Democratic candidate
Sandra Frankel who received 43% of the vote. In as much as
her
latest victory is impressive, it cannot be ignored that Ms.
Brook's margin of
victory has decreased by 17% in last year's election.
The
fact that Rep. Slaughter had represented Current District 28 (that
includes a section of Monroe County) since 1993 will also be a
factor.
Finally, running to be the Representative of a
Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives is vastly
different from running to be a County Executive.
Having
considered all of the above information, we conclude that the odds of winning New District 25 are even.
[WE WOULD DESCRIBE THE ELECTION IN
(NEW) DISTRICT 25 AS A TOSS UP]
[References: Wikipedia, the Free
Encyclopedia, 2012: Press Connects.com, A Gannet Company, 03-22-2-12]
(NEW) DISTRICT 26
Brian Higgins (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families]
Michael Madigan [R] [Conservative] [Independence]
Rep. Brian Higgins represents Current District 27 and is
a four term incumbent.
Current District 27 includes:
All of Chautauqua County;
Southern Part of Erie County:
Much of the City of Buffalo and it's eastern and southern suburbs:
City of Jamestown.
New District 26 lost Chautauqua County,
but includes:
Northern Erie County:
City of Buffalo:
Town of Amherst, North Tonawanda and Niagara Falls.
(Democratic Rep. Kathy Hochul who lives in Amherst will run in
neighboring New District 27)
Current
District 27 changed significantly when it became New District 26.
Nevertheless, Rep. Brian Higgins is favored to win in New District 26.
[WE EXPECT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO HOLD THIS DISTRICT]
[References: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012:
7 Eyewitness News, wkbw 03-06-2012]
(NEW) DISTRICT 27
Kathy Hochul (U.S. Rep) [D] [Working Families]
Chris Collins [R] [Conservative]
Megan Lavin [Independence]
Rep. Kathy Hochul represents Current District 26.
Current District 26 includes:
All of Genesee, Livingston and Wyoming counties;
Parts of Erie, Monroe, Niagara and Orleans counties;
Northeastern suburbs of Buffalo;
Western suburbs of Rochester.
New District 27 includes:
Outer suburbs of Buffalo in Erie County;
Most of Niagara County;
Parts of Monroe County,
all of Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston and Ontario Counties.
When
Current District 26 became New District 27, there were some changes,
but not significant enough to cause serious problems to Rep. Hochul.
She has the inconvenience of moving house as she now lives just
outside the new boundaries.
However, Rep. Hochul does face other challenges in her bid for
re-election.
Rep.
Hochul was elected in a special election held in May 2011 to fill the
seat vacated by Republican Congressman Chris Lee who resigned in
February 2011 amidst a scandal involving unbecoming emails and photos
of himself, he had sent to a woman.
Chris Lee won District 26 in
mid-term election 2010 by defeating Democratic candidate Philip Fedele
73.6% to 26.4% of the vote. His Majority was 97,142 votes.
A combination of factors helped Ms. Hochul to
win in the special election.
To
start with, the circumstances under which Mr. Lee resigned helped Ms.
Hochul. Voters have had enough of the sexual indiscretions of our
politicians. Mr. Lee received 151,449 votes in November 2010. Just over
six months later, in May 2011, only 35,721 Republicans showed up to
vote for the Republican candidate Jane Corwin.
Another factor
that helped Ms. Hochul was that the Tea Party did not support Ms. Corwin.
Jack Davis who was formerly a registered Democrat
ran on Tea Party line and received 10,029 votes. These votes did not
come from Democratic voters. These are votes that would have gone to
the Republican candidate, had the Tea party supported her. These votes
would have been more than sufficient for Ms. Corwin to win the district
over Ms. Hochul.
Many
observers of the special election take the view that, Ms. Corwin's
support for Paul Ryan's budget, that
included
proposal to overhaul Medicare
and replace government-provided health care with partial subsidies for
the cost of private medical insurance, cost her the election. Many in
fact believe that the whole campaign turned in to a referendum on this
issue. If this is true, it only helped to keep Republicans home instead
of turning up to vote. It did not cause Democrats to come out
in
large numbers to vote for Ms. Hochul.
That is what the actual voting indicates. Together with the votes
received along the Working Families Party line Ms. Hochul
received
52,713 votes in May 2011 special election. The Democratic Party
candidate Philip Fedele in November 2010 mid-term election received
54,307 votes.
Where does all this leave Rep. Hochul in November
2012? We would say that Rep. Hochul will do as well as President Obama
will do in New District 27.
We have the results of Presidential
election in 2008 for Rep. Hochul's Current District 26 which are not
encouraging. Then Senator Obama lost in Current District 26 by
receiving 46% of the vote to Senator McCain's 52%.
[WE WOULD DESCRIBE THE ELECTION IN (NEW) DISTRICT 27 AS LEANING TOWARDS
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY]
[References: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]
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