POLITICAL NEWS THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE

Weekly Average Of Presidential Polls In Florida

By: presidential-politics.com
Updated on October 30, 2012

Polls indicate that Florida has become a genuine battle ground state and will play a deciding roll in the outcome of the presidential election.

Following is an average of the latest available polls during the last 7 days:

President Obama     47.66%
Governor Romney    49.16%           

[References: Real Clear Politics, 2012]

Latest Polls Put President Obama Ahead In Florida

By: presidential-politics.com
September 25, 2012

Latest polls dated September 25, 2012 gives President Obama a slight lead over Governor Romney in the State of Florida.
However, with 45 days to go, it is very early to draw conclusions. Florida is more or less a must win for Mr. Romney and the real battle is just beginning.
[References: Real Clear Politics, 09-25-2012]

Florida U.S. Senate Race

By: presidential-politics.com
September 28, 2012

All the latest polls gives Senator Bill Nelson a lead over Congressman Mack in the Florida U.S. senate race.
Please refer to the first column on the left for detail poll results.

{In an analysis by us in May 2012, we predicted that Senator Nelson will  be reelected for another term. We stand by our prediction. Our analysis can be found further down this column under the title "Will Democrats Keep The Florida U.S. Senate Seat ?"}

Connie Mack Wins The Republican Primary For U.S. Senate

By: presidential-politics.com
August 16, 2012

Congressman Connie Mack having easily won the Republican Party Primary last Tuesday will challange incumbent U.S. Senator Bill Nelson in the November general election.

{In an analysis by us in May 2012, we predicted that Senator Nelson will  be reelected for another term. We stand by our prediction. Our analysis can be found further down this column.}

[References: Florida Secretary of State, Department of Elections, 2012]

Florida Presidential Race

[Update- August 01, 2012]
President Obama, has finally been able to get over the 50% mark  in a presidential poll for Florida.
In a  poll by CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac University dated August 1, 2012 Mr. Obama leads Governor Romney 51% to 45%.

Florida U.S. Senate Race

[Update- August 01, 2012]
U.S. Rep. Connie Mack is still expected to win the Republican Party primary even though former U.S. Rep. Dave Weldon is said to be catching momentum.
The primary is set for August 14, 2012.

Purging of Voters from Voter Rolls Stopped For Now

[June 13, 2012]
County election officers say that they have stopped searching for illegal voters in the state list because too many voters in the list turned out to be citizens.
[Reference: Robbie Brown, New York Times, 06-09-2012]

Court Suspends Part of Election Law

[06-03-2012]
A Federal Judge has ordered that the state stop enforcing a part of new election law that puts restrictions on voter registration groups.

The requirement that third-party voter registration groups must turn in registration forms within 48 hours of signing up a new voter is a "virtually impossible burden" and coupled with substantial penalties for non compliance  - $1000.00 in fines - makes voter-registration drives a risky business, said the U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle's order.
[References: Kathleen Haughney, Herald Tribune, 06-01-2012]

D.O.J. Demands Halt To Search For Non Citizen Voters.

[06-03-2012]
The U.S. Department of Justice has written to Florida Secretary of State to stop purging of voter rolls because the states procedures for the search of non-citizen voters have not been re-viewed by the Justice Department.
Due to past racial discrimination, Florida must obtain the approval of the Department of Justice to make changes to voting procedures.
[References: MSNBC TV, 06-01-2012]

Weldon Joins U.S. Senate Race

[05-18-2012]
Former Congressman Dave weldon has joined  the race to seek the Republican Party nomination to challenge U.S. Senator Bill Nelson in the November 2012 election.

Will Democrats Keep the Florida U.S. Senate Seat?

An Analysis

By: Lionel Boteju
Publisher, presidential-politics.com

[Update: 05-15-2012]

Candidates

Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is running for a third term.

Congressman Conni Mack 1V who represents 14th District in Florida and former U.S. Senator from Florida George LeMieux are the leading candidates seeking the Republican Party nomination.
A retired U.S. Army Colonel and 2010 Republican primary candidate Mike McCalister is also a declared candidate, but is far behind in polls.

When Connie Mack 1V entered the race in November last year he became an immediate favorite. He has name recognition. His father Connie Mack 111 served two terms in the U.S. Senate before retiring in 2000. It was his seat that Bill Nelson won in 2000. Connie Mack 1V's great-grandfather was the Connie Mack who owned and managed baseball's Philadelphia Athletics. He was a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame. However, the early enthusiasm  for Rep. Mack's candidacy has waned some what.

Mr. LeMieux was appointed to the U.S. Senate by former Gov. Charlie Crist to replace Senator Mel Martinez who resigned. Mr. LeMieux served from 2009 to 2011. 
Florida Primary on August 14th, 2012 will determine the GOP nominee.

Mr. Nelson is a social and an economic moderate. Both Mr. Mack and Mr. LeMieux are social and fiscal conservatives. Consequently, who ever becomes the Republican nominee, the battle lines are clearly drawn.

The following will matter most in this election:

The Economy
Florida was hit harder than most states with high unemployment and falling house prices. There is slight, but visible improvement in both  unemployment figures and housing market. If a majority of voters attribute this to President Obama's policies, Senator Nelson will benefit.  Those who credit Gov. Rick Scott will go with the GOP candidate who will also emphasize that any improvement to the economy is insignificant.

On the economy, in the final analysis what will matter most is perception. If the voters perceive that the economy is improving they will go with Mr. Obama and Senator Nelson will have the advantage. The opposite is equally true. If the economy declines the GOP candidate will benefit.

Seniors

Seniors, 65 years and over, make up 23.6% of all eligible voters in Florida.

Majority of them did not support Mr. Obama in 2008 and it is unlikely that they would do differently in 2012. However, that does not mean that seniors will turn against Senator Nelson.
On the contrary, the GOP plan proposed by  Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan to replace Medicare with a Voucher system over a period of time is not popular with seniors. They are not buying the contention that the changes will only apply to future seniors.This will help Mr. Nelson with seniors.
So will the process of closing the "doughnut hole" in Medicare prescription drug plan under the new Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, informally referred to as "Obamacare".
Also, Mr. Nelson has been their senator for 12 years and  the older folk tend to trust the one they know.
After all, Senator Nelson was re-elected in 2006 with 60% of the vote and  the majority over Republican candidate Katherine Harris was over one million votes.
We believe that Senator Nelson will at least break even with the GOP Nominee on the senior vote.

Latinos

According to 2010 Florida Division of Elections statistics, Latinos make up 13.1% of the state's registered voters. That would be  1.4 million  out of the state's 11.2 million registered voters.
The said 1.4 million is made up as follows:
452,619 are registered Republicans.
564,513 are registered Democrats.
431,131 have no party affiliation.

Above figures show an advantage of 111,854 to Democrats among registered Latino voters with party affiliation.
Also, according to Florida Division of Elections, between 2010 and 2012, 7,266 Latinos have registered as Republicans. During the same time frame, 13,714 have registered as Democrats. That is nearly double than the Republicans and if that is a trend, Democrats will have a significant advantage .
Several other factors need to be considered when analyzing the Latino vote. The Cuban population by and large support Republicans.This is reflected in the fact that the majority of Hispanic Republican voters are located in South Florida where most Cubans reside. Indeed, 58.5% of  Hispanic Republicans live in Miami-Dada county. However, the geographical location of these voters will not matter in a state-wide election.
Two other 2010 statistics provided by the Pew Research Center are worth considering.
Only 31.3% of the Hispanic households in Florida have an annual income of over $75,000 and most Hispanic families are larger than the national average.
84% of Hispanics speak a language other than English at home.
The policies of the Republican Party on immigration, education and official language  have been proclaimed loud and clear during the GOP Presidential nomination process. To say the least, Hispanics are not pleased with the Republican Party positions on these matters. We believe that Latinos will vote Democratic in large numbers nationally in the November election. Florida will be no exception and Senator Nelson should do very well with the Hispanic vote.

Women as a voting block

Women make up 52% of eligible voters in Florida with men at 48%. The women however, vote in larger numbers than men which make the difference significant. Many women will not take seriously the so called "war on women". But most women do believe that their rights are better protected by Democrats than by Republicans. This is particularly true among younger women and single mothers. On the women vote, the edge has to go to Senator Nelson.

Young Voters

Young voters, age group 18 to 29 years make up 19.3% of all eligible Florida voters. Among Hispanics it is 25%. President Obama is vigorously courting younger voters promoting cheaper student loans for college students and training opportunities for the unemployed. Senator Nelson joins President Obama enthusiastically on these measures.On the contrary, Rep Mack has refused to take a position on renewing the Student Loan Subsidy Plan. He was asked  last month as to how he would vote on this plan and he repeatedly dodged the question. We live in the Internet age and  younger voters do pay attention to politicians' positions on matters that affect them. Senator Nelson should do better with younger voters than Rep. Mack if he is the nominee.

African American Vote

Black voters make up 13.95% of all eligible voters in Florida and with President Obama in the ballot, they will turn up in large numbers to vote. Most African Americans do not agree with Mr. Obama's new position on Gay marriage, but this will not prevent them from turning up and voting for him . It is a given that the African Americans who vote for Mr. Obama will also vote for Senator Nelson. The Black vote should help Mr. Nelson to an extent larger, than the Hispanic vote. 

White Male Vote

White males make up 33% of all eligible Florida voters.
Employment opportunities and  education policies will guide younger White male voters in casting their vote.
Florida seniors will know about the two candidates by the time they go to the polls. Policy positions as well as their likes and dislikes of the two men will determine their vote.
A small majority of  middle-age white males in Florida have in recent statewide elections supported the Republican candidate.
In November 2012 the GOP candidate will  do better with the overall White male vote.

Independent Voters

According to the latest available statistics, as of April 1, 2012, 24% of registered voters in Florida are registered as Independents or No Party Affiliation. Registered as Democrats are 40% and Republicans claim 36%.
With those numbers, Independents could obviously influence any statewide election in Florida.Their vote is difficult to predict. They are known to severely dislike negative advertising. They want things done and appreciate the value of compromise. The Tea Party will put them off which will hurt the GOP candidate. Independents' interests are about the same as that of those with party affiliations. An economy that struggles would hurt Senator Nelson with Independents.

The safest prediction would be that the Independents would vote more or less in equal numbers to the Democratic and Republican candidates.

The Tea Party

The Tea Partiers will vote 100% to Rep. Mack and will work very hard for him.

Prediction

Finally to the latest polls. The most recent available poll taken on April 27, 2012 puts Senator Nelson ahead of the three Republican candidates by over 10 points.But a warning sign to the Senator is that in each one of those polls he has failed to get above 50%.

The contest will go to another level when the Republicans have their nominee. A lot will change including polls almost immediately after the primary. Nevertheless, having carefully considered all of the above, if I were a betting man, I will place a huge bet on Senator Nelson.

[References: Wikipedia, the new encyclopedia, 2012: David Royse, news-press.com, 04-13-2012: Pew Research Center, Pew Hispanic Center, 01-23-2012: 2010 census.gov. census data: Real clear politics polls, 2012]