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Polls In The State Of Connecticut Leading Upto The November 6, 2012 General Election

Connecticut -  Presidential

Obama      55%
Romney    41%
Quinnipiac
October 24, 2012
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Connecticut - U.S. Senate

Murphy [D]      51%
McMahon [R]   45%
Rasmussen
October 29, 2012

Murphy [D]       48%
McMahon [R]    47%
Rasmussen Reports
October 23, 2012

Murphy [D]       47%
McMahon [R]    43%
Survey USA
October 23, 2012

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United States Senators of Connecticut State
Joseph Lieberman (I)
Richard Blumenthal (D)

United States House of Representatives of Connecticut State
Total number of U S Representatives: 5
Democratic Party: 5

Governor of Connecticut State
Dannel P Malloy (D)

Connecticut State Senate
Total number of Senators: 36
Democratic Party: 22
Republican Party: 14

Connecticut State House
Total number of Representatives: 151
Democratic Party: 99
Republican Party: 52

PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS AND STATE POLITICS

Presidential Election 2012

The State of Connecticut is allotted 7 electoral votes in the Electoral College. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. Connecticut is a winner-takes-all state, meaning, the winner in the state will receive all 7 electoral votes.
In President election 2008, Senator Obama won in the State of Connecticut. He received 60.59% of the vote to Senator McCain's 38.22%.
[References:U.S. Electoral College, 2012: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia,2011]

U.S. Senate Election In Connecticut, 2012

Incumbent Independent U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman is retiring.

Candidates

Chris Murphy [D]
Linda McMahon [R]

Chris Murphy is the United States Representative for Connecticut Congressional District 5.


Linda McMahon is a wealthy businesswoman and was the Republican Party candidate in the U.S. Senate election in 2010. She lost to Mr. Richard Blumenthal.

{In an analysis made by us in May 2012, we predicted that Mr. Murphy will be the next Junior U.S. Senator from Connecticut. We stand by our prediction. Our analysis can be found further down in the right-hand  column on this page.}

U.S. House of Representatives Election In Connecticut, 2012

The State of Connecticut did not gain or lose congressional seats on account of the 2010 United States census.
After a redistricting process that necessitated  the State Supreme Court to appoint a Special Master to oversee the redistricting, a new map was adopted and the primary elections were held on August 14, 2012.

Following are the 5 congressional districts and the candidates:

DISTRICT 1

John B. Larson [D] Incumbent U.S. Rep.
John Henry Decker [R]

DISTRICT 2

Joe Courtney [D] Incumbent U. S. Rep.
Paul M. Formica [R]
Dan Reale [Third Party]

DISTRICT 3

Rosa L DeLauro [D] Incumbent U.S. Rep.
Wayne Winsley [R]

DISTRICT 4

Jim Himes [D] Incumbent U.S. Rep.
Steve Obsitnik [R]

DISTRICT 5

Incumbent Democratic  U.S. Rep. Christopher S. Murphy is not seeking reelection in District 5. Instead he is running for the Connecticut U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Senator Joe Lieberman.

Candidates

Elizabeth Esty [D]
Andrew Roraback [R]

[References: Connecticut Department of State. Division of Elections, 2012]

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U.S. Senate Election In Connecticut 2012 - The Background

[12-15-2011]   

Incumbent Independent U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman announced in January 2011 that he will not be running for another term.

Senator Lieberman was a Democrat and indeed was the running mate for the former Vice-President Albert Gore Jr. when Mr. Gore ran for President in the Presidential Election in 2000.
However, in the 2006 Senatorial Election, incumbent Senator Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primary by businessman Ned Lamont. Senator Lieberman ran and won that election under the  party he formed named Connecticut for Lieberman. Nevertheless, he has remained in the Senate Democratic Caucus although he has crossed the party line on important issues. In fact in the 2000 presidential election, he endorsed the Republican nominee Senator McCain over the Democratic nominee Senator Obama. These factors surrounding Senator Lieberman are worth remembering , when considering the prospects of a possible replacement to the Senate Seat he is vacating.

Several names have been mentioned as possible candidates from the two main parties.
Democratic Party
Among those who have declared, the prominent are U.S. Representative Chris Murphy and  former Connecticut secretary of state Susan Bysiewicz. According to recent polls, Murphy has a slight edge over Bysiewicz.
Republican Party
Linda McMahon was the Republican nominee in the 2010 Election for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring incumbent Senator Chris Dodd. She lost to the Democratic nominee Richard Blumenthal. She has declared as a candidate for the Republican Party nomination in 2012.
Former U.S. Representative Chris Shays is also a declared candidate.
Former U.S. Representative Rob Simmons is a potential candidate who could make a difference. [Parts of the above information was obtained from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia]








NEWS IN BRIEF

It Is A Close Race For The U.S. Senate

By: presidential-politics.com
October 6, 2012

Recent polls indicate a very close race for the United States senate seat being vacated by Senator Joseph Lieberman.

In an analysis made by us in May 2012, we predicted that Mr. Murphy will be the next Junior U.S. Senator from Connecticut. We stand by our prediction. Our analysis can be found  further down this column.
Please refer to column one on the left for detail poll information.
[References: Real Clear Politics, 09-27-2012]


Chris Murphy and Linda McMahon Wins Big In The primaries

By presidential-politics.com
August 16, 2012

Congressman Chris Murphy easily defeated former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz in the State primary last Tuesday and will be the Democratic Party nominee for the U.S. Senate election in November 2012. 

Mr. Murphy will face Businesswoman Linda McMahon who easily defeated former Congressman Chris Shays.
[References: Connecticut Department of State, Division of Elections, 2012]

Democratic Party Endorses Congressman Chris Murpy

[05-16-2012]
At the Democratic Party convention held on May 12, 2012 the delegates by an overwhelming majority endorsed U. S. Rep. Chris Murphy  as their choice to be the Democratic Party candidate for the U.S. Senate seat .
However, former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz will battle it out at the August primary. She filed her paperwork yesterday to run in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate.
[References: MiddletownPatch.com, 05-15-2012]

Governor Endorses Rep. Murphy

[05-05-2012]
Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy has endorsed U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy for the Democratic Party nomination to run for the U.S. Senate seat that will become vacant  when Independent U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman retires in December 2012.

Election 2012 For U.S. Senate Seat In The State of Connecticut

An Analysis

By Lionel Boteju
 presidential-politics.com
[05-04-2012]
Incumbent Independent Senior U.S Senator of Connecticut Joe Lieberman is retiring and we have another open senate seat. Senator Joe Lieberman was a Democrat. Indeed he was Vice-President Al Gore's running mate, when Mr. Gore ran for President in 2000. However, Mr. Lieberman lost the Democratic primary in 2008, ran as an Independent and won.

Candidates:

U.S. Representative Chris Murphy and former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz are the main contenders among several declared candidates seeking the Democratic Party nomination.
Rep. Murphy has the support of the Democratic Party establishment including a recent endorsement from Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy.
A poll taken by Quinnipiac University on March 14-19, 2012 shows Rep. Murpy leading  Ms. Bysiewicz 37% to 25%.
We believe that Rep. Murphy will be the Democratic Party nominee.

There is a close contest between former Congressman Chris Shays and former wrestling executive Linda McMahon for the Republican Party nomination.

Ms. McMahon was the Republican Party nominee in the 2010 U.S. Senate race to fill the seat of Senator Chris Dodd who retired. She is a wealthy woman whose family runs WWE, a professional wrestling organization, and spent around $50 million during her 2010 campaign that she lost to Mr. Blumenthal. She had the full backing of the Tea Party conservatives in the 2010 campaign.

Former Congressman Chris Shays who served in the House for 21 years  lost his seat in 2008 to the Democratic candidate. He is a moderate Republican well liked by the Republican establishment. He is behind in polls in the primary contest with Ms. McMahon but fares better than her in a hypothetical contest with Democratic Rep. Murphy.
In the Quinnipiac University Poll taken March 14-19, 2012 Ms. McMahon leads Mr. Shays 51% to 42%.
In the same poll Rep. Murphy beats Ms. McMahon 52% to 37%  whereas, Mr. Murphy leads Mr. Shays by only 41% to 40%,  just one percentage point.
The bottom line seems to be that Ms. McMahon has the money while Mr. Shays is more popular. 

At this point in time it is not possible to predict as to who will be the Republican Party nominee. The primaries for both major parties will be held on August 14, 2012.

We will, however, predict a winner in the November 2012 election.
Connecticut is a blue state, we would say as blue as it can get. The Governor, both United States Senators ( Mr. Lieberman caucuses with Democrats) and all five U.S. House Representatives are Democrats.
This is a Presidential election year and Mr. Obama will carry the state by a huge margin. In 2008 Senator Obama beat Senator McCain 60.59% to 38.22% with Connecticut senior senator Joe Lieberman who was a Democrat firmly behind Mr. McCain.
In mid-term election  2010, which was more-or-less a nationwide landslide for Republicans, the Democratic candidate Mr. Blumenthal beat Ms. Mc.Mahon 55.16% to 43.22%. The majority was 137,755 votes. 

We will predict that Rep. Murphy will win against either of the Republican candidates, be it Mr. Shays or Ms. Mc.Mahon. It will be good for Connecticut Democrats. They will have a real Democrat as their Junior Senator.