POLITICAL NEWS THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE

General Election 2012 In Arizona

By: presidential-politics.com
November 26, 2012

Even though the polls indicated a close race in the presidential contest, Gov. Romney won the state easily. (Romney 54.2%, Obama 44.1%)

The U.S. Senate race for the seat vacated by Senator Jon Kyl  was much closer. Republican Jeff Flake defeated Democrat Richard Carmona by four percentage points.

The Democrats did far better in the U.S. House of Representative races by winning five out of the nine congressional districts.

For detail results, please see the center column on this page.
[References: POLITICO, election results update, 11-21-2012]

Weekly Average Of Presidential Polls In Arizona

By: presidential-politics.com
October 23, 2012

Polls indicate that Arizona may become a genuine battle ground state and will play a deciding roll in the outcome of the presidential election.

Following is an average of the latest available polls during the last 7 days:

President Obama    44%            
Governor Romney   42%           

[References: Real Clear Politics, 2012]

Carmona In The Lead In The U.S. Senate race

By: presidential-politics.com
October 06, 2012

Latest polling by Public Policy Polling  dated October 3, 2012 gives Democratic candidate Richard  Carmona the lead for the first time in the Unites States Senate race in Arizona  (Carmona 45%,  Flake 43%.) It is a very slight lead of only two percentage points, yet significant with 31 days to go for the election.
[References: Real Clear Politics, 10-06-2012)

President Obama Is Closing In On Gov. Romney In Arizona

By: presidential-politics.com
September 24, 2012

According to a poll conducted by Purple Strategies between September 15th to 19th, Gov. Romney is just three points ahead of President Obama (Romney 48% Obama 45%).

Purple Strategies is a bipartisan consulting firm and the poll will receive close scrutiny by the Romney campaign. An impending loss in Arizona will devastate the Romney campaign. It is not just the Arizona 11 electoral votes. It will be an omen of the Latino vote on the election as a whole.
[References: The Arizona Republic, 09-23-2012]

{WE INVITE YOU TO READ AN ARTICLE BY US  WITH THE HEADING  "ARIZONA AND THE HISPANIC VOTE". WE PUBLISHED IT ON DECEMBER 22ND LAST YEAR. YOU WILL FIND IT FURTHER DOWN THIS COLUMN.}

Update On Sheriff Joe Arpaio's Re-election Bid

July 23, 2012
Controversy surrounds Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio - Nothing new.

A civil suit filed in Arizona Federal Court alleges that Arpaio's deputies racially profiled Hispanics. The hearing started last week. The degree to which this case will affect his re-election bid is uncertain.                                                      

Mr. Arpaio's campaign is well financed, nearly $7 million, most of it coming from out of state donors. 

In a press conference last week, the Sheriff  maintained that President Obama's birth certificate is invalid.

Former Phoenix police sergeant Paul Penzone and former New York City police officer John Rowan are seeking the Democratic Party nomination. They are far behind Arpaio in campaign finance. Nevertheless, one of them could pose a serious challange to Sheriff Arpaio on account of the many controversies surrounding him.                                          
[References: Fox News, 07-22-2012]

Ron Barbar Wins The Special Election

[June 13, 2012]
Democrat Ron Barbar easily won in the special election held yesterday to elect a representative for congressional district 8. The seat became vacant upon the resignation of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords who suffered serious injuries in the horrible Tuscan shooting. Mr. Barber was Ms. Giffords' district director.

Mr. Barber received 52% of the vote. His Republican opponent Mr. Jesse Kelly received 46% of the vote. The hardly fought election was for a term of only six months being the remaining balance of  Ms. Giffords' term. Both Barber and Kelly are declared candidates for the November 2012 general election when they will do it all over again.

Some elections are an indication as to what is to come. This one may, not withstanding the unfortunate circumstances that made it necessary. Mr. Kelly who was backed by the Tea Party campaigned on President Obama's handling of the economy. Future of Medicare and Social Security were also major issues. Congressional district 8 in which the election was held has far more registered Republicans than registered Democrats.In fact, Ms. Giffords won over Mr. Kelly in the 2010 mid-term election by less than 5,000 votes. The election results last night should make Democrats optimistic.
[References: Arizona Department of State, Secretary of State, 2012 election results]

Arizona Congressional District 8 Special Election Polls:

Ron Barbar [D] 53%
Jesse Kelly [R]  41%
Public Policy Polling [D]
06-11-2012

Special Election For Former Rep. Gifford's Seat Is Scheduled For June 12, 2012.

[06-11-2012]
Tomorrow is the special election.

Arizona Congressional District 8 was represented by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords who resigned in January 2012 , one year after the horrible Tuscany shooting. There will be a special election on June 12, 2012 to elect a representative to serve out the balance of Ms. Gifford's term.

Ron Barber who is a former District Director of Ms. Giffords is the Democratic Party candidate  and has her backing.

Jesse Kelly who was defeated by Ms. Giffords in the 2008 general election is the Republican Party candidate.

Even though this election is for the balance of Ms. Gifford's term, which is only six months, a lot of money and effort has been put in by both candidates.

Both Barber and Kelly have announced that they are running again in November 2012.

DOJ Approves The New Congressional Map

[06-08-2012]
The new congressional map for Arizona has been approved by the U.S. Department of Justice. Such approval is necessary for Arizona because of past problems with the Voting Rights Act that protects minority voting rights.
The new map includes an additional district to accommodate the population growth reflected in the 2010 census. Accordingly, Arizona will have nine congressional districts in the November 2012 election.
[References: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012]

Special Election for Arizona Congressional District 8

[May 20, 2012]
The special election for Rep. Gabe Gifford's Congressional District 8 is scheduled for 
June 12, 2012. Early voting started today. 

Democratic candidate Ron Barber served as Ms. Gifford's District Director. He was also injured in the shooting that caused brain trauma to the congresswoman which led to her resignation.

Jesse Kelly who lost to Rep.Giffords in 2010 mid-term election by a narrow margin is the Republican Candidate.
[References: News 4 Tuck son, 05-17-2012]

Arizona U.S. Senate Election 2012
An Analysis

By Lionel Boteju,
Publisher, presidential-politics.com

[05-04-2012]
Incumbent Republican Senator Jon Kyl has been the Junior Senator from Arizona since 1994. He is retiring at the end of his current term and we have an open senate seat in Arizona.

For both parties the filing deadline is June 1, 2012 and the primary is on August 28, 2012.

Candidates:

There will be a hotly contested primary between U.S. Representative Jeff Flake and wealthy businessman and real estate investor Will Cardon for the Republican Party nomination.
Conservatives and Tea Party folks are not happy with the positions Rep. Flake has previously taken on immigration, gays in the military and Cuba. Mr. Cardon's self financed campaign is pushing hard against Rep. Flake. However, the general consensus is that Rep. Flake will prevail and be the Republican Party nominee.

Former Surgeon General of the United States Richard Carmona has no serious primary challenger and  will be the Democratic Party nominee.

The bitter battle between Rep. Flake and Mr. Cardon will obviously help Mr. Carmona but not enough by itself  to win in November. Once the primary is over, all factions of the GOP and Tea party will fully back Rep. Flake.

A poll by Rasmussen Reports on 3/13/2012 shows Rep. Flake leading Carmona 47% to 34%.
A NBC News/Marist Poll from February 19-20, 2012 has Rep. Flake with 42% and Carmona with 29%.
A more recent poll on April 25th by Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt Research puts Carmona within striking distance of Rep. Flake (Flake 43% to Carmona 39%).

We believe that the Democratic candidate Richard Carmona has a chance to pull an upset victory in November, if and only if, the Hispanics turn out in huge numbers to vote. According to the said poll by Anzalone Liszt Research, Carmona wins the Hispanic vote over Rep. Flake by 36%. Even that may not be enough.

As of now, we have to conclude that Republican Rep. Flake has the edge on this race.
[References: Wikipedia, the free Encyclopedia, 2012: Real Clear Politics Poll, April 2012: The Hill, Ballot Box, Josh Lederman, 04-25-2012: Roll Call Politics, Abby Livingston, 04-30-2012]

Arizona And The Hispanic Vote

By: Lionel Boteju
Publisher, presidential-politics.com
[12-22-2011]


Since the election of President Obama in 2008, news from Arizona has predominantly been about immigration - mostly negative from  a Hispanic perspective.
Indeed, President Obama's own immigration status, seems to be suspect to the Republican State Legislators - they push a law that would require Mr. Obama to provide his long form birth certificate to get on the Arizona Presidential ballot in 2012.

Arizona enacted its immigration law last year, and on any scale, some provisions are pretty stringent.

One provision is a requirement that state law enforcement officials determine the immigration status of anyone they stop or arrest, if they have reason to believe that person might be an illegal immigrant. Another provision makes it a crime for an illegal immigrant to work or try to find work. The Obama administration appealed against four such provisions, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit in San Fransisco blocked those provisions. The United States Supreme Court has agreed to review the ruling by the Ninth Circuit.

While all this is taking place, the Hispanics now constitute nearly a third of the Arizona population. The voting age population of Hispanics in Arizona has surged over the years to 845,000 and now constitutes 19 percent of Arizona residents of voting age.

The White House support the piece of legislation known as the Dream Act, that would provide young Hispanic students' paths to citizenship, which is stalled in congress due to Republican opposition.

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, a Republican who has been a harsh critic of the Obama Administration has applauded the decision by the U.S.Supreme Court to take up the case involving Arizona State Immigration law. But, over this issue, President Obama is in a win-win situation with Hispanics. Whatever decision the US Supreme Court makes concerning these laws, the Hispanics will only move more aggressively to President Obama's corner. There is no rationale for them to embrace Governor Brewer and the Republican Legislature in either scenario.
It is still a long shot, but when you consider that in Arizona in 2008, running against the popular native son Senator John McCain, Mr.Obama received 42 percent of the vote, Arizona Hispanics just may hand over surprise victory for Mr. Obama in 2012.
[References: Helen Cooper, The New York Times - Arizona Sees a Boom In Voting Age Hispanics, 12-02-2011 : Adam Liptak, The  New York Times - Court to Weigh Arizona Statute On Immigration, 12-13-2011: Retrieved on 12-22-2011]